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Subdued, With All Focus on CPI

FOREX
  • Markets have started the week in subdued fashion, with most major pairs trading inside their recent ranges, although a modest risk-off tone continues to hang over price action.
  • JPY is the best performing currency in G10, with USD/JPY briefly edging below the Y115.00 handle, albeit still trades clear of the Friday low of 114.77.
  • One standout currency is the NOK, falling against all others in G10 as USD/NOK bounces further off the 200-dma at 8.681. Next upside target rests at the 50-dma of 8.8989, which remains within range should crude oil prices roll further off their recent highs.
  • ECB's Lagarde is due to speak later today (1545GMT/1045ET) and markets will be on watch for any reinterpretation of last week's hawkish ECB meeting. Markets continue to price in around 50bps of tightening by year-end, a marked shift that continues to widen Italian/Spanish spreads against Germany - a correlation that has historically been negative for the EUR.
  • Focus remains on US CPI data later in the week, with markets expecting Y/Y CPI to rise to 7.3% - a new multi-decade high. Sentiment leading into the release will likely drive sentiment over the coming days, particularly through the lens of US monetary policy.
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