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Summary – February 13

LATAM
  • The Latam calendar is quiet today, with Brazil markets still closed for carnival and no major data releases scheduled for the region. Market focus will be on the US CPI data for January at 1330GMT(0830ET), where analysts expect the annual rates of inflation for both headline and core to slow further. The Fed’s Goolsbee will be the first post-CPI Fed speaker, followed by Barr later in the session.
  • Global News:
    • US (MNI CPI Preview) – consensus puts core CPI inflation at 0.3% m/m in January with mild risk seen to the downside, for a very similar reading to December after Friday’s annual revisions. Those revised seasonal factors plus new weights aren’t seen having a large impact in January but nevertheless add to some uncertainty. A broad theme is that service inflation could have strengthened with an offset from a large drag from used cars.
    • MIDEAST – President Biden said he’s pushing for a six-week pause in fighting between Israel and Hamas to allow for the release of hostages, saying that could lay the groundwork for broader peace. Such a pause “would bring an immediate and sustained period of calm into Gaza for at least six weeks, which we could then take the time to build something more enduring,” Biden said.
    • OIL – Global oil markets should remain “comfortable” this year as new supplies satisfy demand and keep prices in check, according to the IEA. World consumption will increase by 1.2-1.3mn barrels a day in 2024, a “significantly weaker” pace than last year as economic growth slows in China and elsewhere, Executive Director Fatih Birol said. This will be easily matched by swelling production from the Americas, predominantly the US, Canada, Brazil and Guyana.
    • CHINA (BBG) – MSCI Inc. is cutting dozens of Chinese companies from its global benchmarks following a market rout that’s erased trillions of dollars in value from the nation’s stocks. The index provider is removing 66 companies from its MSCI China Index in its latest quarterly review, the highest tally in at least two years. The changes, effective on Feb 29, also apply to the MSCI All Country World Index.
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