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Summary – July 12

LATAM
EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletEmerging Market NewsBank of Japan (BOJ) Market News
  • Mexico industrial production is due on Friday, with growth expected to slow to 1.1% y/y in May. Elsewhere, Brazil IBGE service volume figures will cross, while Argentina CPI inflation data for June will also be released later today. In the US, yesterday's softer-than-expected CPI print will be weighing on market's minds ahead of the PPI release later today. Fed rates pricing continues to eye the September meeting as the most likely turning point for interest rates.
  • EUR/JPY – After yesterday's suspected official intervention in the JPY, markets were volatile again overnight, with supposed rate checks from the BoJ in EUR/JPY keeping markets on edge. The cross printed a new pullback low of 171.52 on the rate check, however prices have recovered well across Friday morning trade.
  • Global news:
    • US – President Biden vowed he would remain in the 2024 presidential race, but two critical mistakes in the span of two hours deepened concerns about his mental acuity that threaten his campaign. The president drew gasps when he mistakenly introduced Zelenskiy as Russian President Vladimir Putin at an event in the late afternoon. Then, at the opening of the press conference, he fumbled a question about Vice President Kamala Harris by saying he “wouldn’t have picked Vice President Trump to be vice president” if he did not have confidence in her.
    • US (MNI) – Vice President Kamala Harris has once again overtaken President Biden in political betting markets with regards to who will be the Democratic party's presidential nominee come November, following Biden's latest verbal gaffes. The latest figures from Election Betting Odds, which collates data from Predictit, Polymarket, Smarkets and Betfair, gives Harris a 43.3% implied probability of becoming the Democratic party nominee, up 7.3% to 24 hours ago.
    • JAPAN (MNI) – BoJ officials are “rate-checking” against the euro in FX markets, meaning the BoJ stands ready to conduct forex interventions, the Nikkei reported. The BoJ is known for “rate-checking” before intervening, with the Ministry of Finance acting as final decision maker. Japanese authorities conducted yen-buying interventions against the U.S. dollar early on Friday, local media reported.
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  • Mexico industrial production is due on Friday, with growth expected to slow to 1.1% y/y in May. Elsewhere, Brazil IBGE service volume figures will cross, while Argentina CPI inflation data for June will also be released later today. In the US, yesterday's softer-than-expected CPI print will be weighing on market's minds ahead of the PPI release later today. Fed rates pricing continues to eye the September meeting as the most likely turning point for interest rates.
  • EUR/JPY – After yesterday's suspected official intervention in the JPY, markets were volatile again overnight, with supposed rate checks from the BoJ in EUR/JPY keeping markets on edge. The cross printed a new pullback low of 171.52 on the rate check, however prices have recovered well across Friday morning trade.
  • Global news:
    • US – President Biden vowed he would remain in the 2024 presidential race, but two critical mistakes in the span of two hours deepened concerns about his mental acuity that threaten his campaign. The president drew gasps when he mistakenly introduced Zelenskiy as Russian President Vladimir Putin at an event in the late afternoon. Then, at the opening of the press conference, he fumbled a question about Vice President Kamala Harris by saying he “wouldn’t have picked Vice President Trump to be vice president” if he did not have confidence in her.
    • US (MNI) – Vice President Kamala Harris has once again overtaken President Biden in political betting markets with regards to who will be the Democratic party's presidential nominee come November, following Biden's latest verbal gaffes. The latest figures from Election Betting Odds, which collates data from Predictit, Polymarket, Smarkets and Betfair, gives Harris a 43.3% implied probability of becoming the Democratic party nominee, up 7.3% to 24 hours ago.
    • JAPAN (MNI) – BoJ officials are “rate-checking” against the euro in FX markets, meaning the BoJ stands ready to conduct forex interventions, the Nikkei reported. The BoJ is known for “rate-checking” before intervening, with the Ministry of Finance acting as final decision maker. Japanese authorities conducted yen-buying interventions against the U.S. dollar early on Friday, local media reported.