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Summary of Analyst Views (1/2)

BOE
  • 5/21 (24%) analysts look for a 75bp hike in November. BNP and Credit Suisse had expected a 75bp September hike and push this to the next meeting. Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and NatWest Markets also now look for a 75bp hike in November.
  • The remaining analysts all look for a 50bp in November, albeit most of them acknowledge risks of a 75bp hike, and all see risks skewed to 75bp rather than 25bp.
  • At the time of writing (following the government’s Growth Plan), markets pricing around 84bp for November – with a 100bp hike not expected by any analyst (at least before any post-Growth Plan forecast updates).
  • Every analyst also looks for at least a 25bp hike in December 2022 with Goldman Sachs and NatWest Markets both looking for a second 75bp hike (10%), 11 analysts (52%) looking for 50bp and 8 expecting 25bp (38%).
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