September 23, 2022 13:32 GMT
- 8 analysts (38%) expect the last hike in December 2022, 5 (24%) analysts expect the last hike in February 2022 and 8 analysts expect the last hike in March 2023 (38%).
- The median expectation for the terminal rate remains at 3.50% (unchanged from prior to the September MPC meeting). But we note that some analysts noted they may review their forecast after the Growth Plan, and no analyst now looks for a terminal rate below 3.00% (up from 4 pre-meeting).
- 3/21 analysts explicitly say they expect cuts in 2023 (down from 5/21). Berenberg and Nomura expect cuts to begin in Q3-23 while Pantheon looks for the first cut in Q4-23. TD Securities doesn’t specify an exact start date but looks for cuts to begin in H2-23.