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Trend Needle Still Points North

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Trend Remains Down

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Near-Term Fed Hikes Resilient But 2023 Rates Slide

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Summary of Analyst Views (2/2)

BOE
  • 8 analysts (38%) expect the last hike in December 2022, 5 (24%) analysts expect the last hike in February 2022 and 8 analysts expect the last hike in March 2023 (38%).
  • The median expectation for the terminal rate remains at 3.50% (unchanged from prior to the September MPC meeting). But we note that some analysts noted they may review their forecast after the Growth Plan, and no analyst now looks for a terminal rate below 3.00% (up from 4 pre-meeting).
  • 3/21 analysts explicitly say they expect cuts in 2023 (down from 5/21). Berenberg and Nomura expect cuts to begin in Q3-23 while Pantheon looks for the first cut in Q4-23. TD Securities doesn’t specify an exact start date but looks for cuts to begin in H2-23.

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  • 8 analysts (38%) expect the last hike in December 2022, 5 (24%) analysts expect the last hike in February 2022 and 8 analysts expect the last hike in March 2023 (38%).
  • The median expectation for the terminal rate remains at 3.50% (unchanged from prior to the September MPC meeting). But we note that some analysts noted they may review their forecast after the Growth Plan, and no analyst now looks for a terminal rate below 3.00% (up from 4 pre-meeting).
  • 3/21 analysts explicitly say they expect cuts in 2023 (down from 5/21). Berenberg and Nomura expect cuts to begin in Q3-23 while Pantheon looks for the first cut in Q4-23. TD Securities doesn’t specify an exact start date but looks for cuts to begin in H2-23.