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Summary of Analyst Views

BOE
  • First hike (out of 19 analysts):
    • 12 expect December 2021 hike (7 had looked for a hike this week, 5 unchanged view)
    • 7 expect February 2022 hike (2 had looked for a hike this week, 1 had expected a hike in December, 4 had expected February).
  • All analysts have a first hike of 15bp in their base case with following hikes in 25bp increments.
  • Only 4 analysts now see rates at 0.50% in February 2022 (which would stop the March reinvestment).
  • 13/16 analysts see rates at 0.50% or higher by May 2022.
  • Rate at end of 2022 (out of 20):
    • 2 analysts see rates at 1% by end-2022
    • 10 see rates at 0.75% at end 2022
    • 8 see rates at 0.50% at end 2022.
  • Every review that discussed QT expects gilt reinvestments to fully cease when Bank Rate reaches 0.50% and gilt sales to begin when Bank Rate reaches 1.00%.
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