Summary of JPM's call for FOMC: No major........>

FED: Summary of JPM's call for FOMC: No major changes in policy.

- Statement: Will retain downbeat tone ("considerable risks" to the outlook).

- SEP: Rate dots could be soft way of reinforcing the statement's fwd guidance

(unch from April). Median dot: no hikes through 2022. Probably some members w a

few 2022 hikes, maybe even 2021. May nudge down L-R median 25bps to 2.25%.

- Fwd guidance: April minutes appeared to suggest this was on the table for

June, but Clarida's downplaying since then suggests this won't be done until

fall. Fed leadership may have changed their minds since Clarida spoke (May 21).

If so, date-based may be the easiest at this point, such as pledging to keep

rates near 0 for the next 3 years (perhaps with an inflation knockout clause).

- At any rate, Fed officials have a preference for outcome-based guidance over

date-based guidance, and may want to link outcome-based guidance to the

conclusion of the framework review.

- YCC: Without a change in fwd guid, don't see this entering the discussion yet,

nor ready to commit to QE plan (instead, statement will continue to note that

the current purchases will continue "in the amounts needed.")