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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
NZD
NZD/USD has fallen ~3.5% off multi-month highs having printed its highest level since early June last week.
- The pair has found support below $0.63 in recent dealing. The NZ-US 2-year swap rate differentials is up from recent lows of around +20bps to +34bps, which has likely helped stabilize kiwi sentiment to a degree.
- However, the NZD/USD spot rate is elevated, when compared to the narrowing in swap rate differentials which are ~60bps tighter versus recent highs in mid December last year.
- Bears look to sustain a break of the 200-day EMA ($0.6292) and 50-Day EMA ($0.6260) to target $0.6146 the 38.2% retracement from February highs.
- Bulls first target the 20-day EMA at $0.6397 to regain the upper hand.
- Tuesday’s CPI data in the US provides the next macro risk event, however tomorrow NZ PMIs are out, while in the U of Mich Inflation expectations will be closely watched.
Fig 1: NZ US 2 year Swap Rate Differentialsv NZDUSD Daily Spot
Source: Market News International (MNI)/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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