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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
HUNGARY
- Selling pressure on the HUF has been soaring in the past week amid recent in risk aversion.
- We previously saw that the HUF has been extremely sensitive to the DXY moves; the chart below shows the strong co-movement between DXY index and the EURHUF exchange rate.
- NBH policymakers could intervene into the market via the 1W depo rate facility, but they may decide to wait for next week’s core meeting (August 30th) to proceed with another ‘large’ hike.
- It is likely that the NBH will maintain the pace of its tightening cycle and proceed with at least a 100bps hike on both the base and 1W depo rates.
- This would levitate the policy rate to 11.75%, the highest level since April 2004.
- As the poor macro outlook is expected to maintain the USD strong in the near, hiking rates too aggressively may not have an immediate impact on the forint, but could prevent selling pressure from rising further.
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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