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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
- Turning to the household survey, the u/e rate was lower than expected. We had indicated a skew lower from primary dealer analysts but even then the decline was large, nearly tilting into a rounded 3.6 with 3.66% after 3.74%.
- A -240k population control effect for household employment was surprisingly low to us, whilst excluding this effect it would have increased 239k for only limited bounce after December’s -683k.
- On the same basis, unemployment fell by -116k on the month when removing the population control effect after +6k in Dec.
- The participation rate surprisingly mostly consolidated December’s large decline, only rising to 62.52% (cons 62.6) after 62.48% in Dec and 62.78% in Nov.
- Looking at the rounded figures by age cohort, there were 0.1pp increases for prime (25-54) and both ends of non-prime workers, i.e. still no sign of early retirees being tempted back with the 55+ participation almost 2pps below pre-pandemic levels.
- The underemployment rate meanwhile offered a slightly more dovish outturn, increasing a tenth to 7.2% for its highest since Oct and before that Feb’22. It’s harder to attribute what drove this though because of population controls.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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