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Surprisingly stable against USD and equity moves

BOND SUMMARY

Core fixed income is showing a mixed performance this morning with Bunds and Treasuries showing little in the way of direction and trading largely inside yesterday's ranges while gilts have moved through yesterday's lows (but remain above Friday's lows).

  • The lack of significant movement in core fixed income stands in curious contrast to the moves higher seen in equity markets and the USD selloff.
  • Issuance has been heavy in the European session with a E14.137bln dual-tranche EU SURE transaction being the highlight (likely the last sizeable SURE transaction). 3/20-year gilts and Schatz make up the rest of the European government issuance for the morning.
  • Looking ahead there is focus on the three MPC members (Bailey, Broadbent and Ramsden) appearing ahead of the Lord Economic Affairs Committee. The topic is QE and given the focus on how the unwind of QE will be managed in the future is under investigation by BOE staff at present, the market will watch for any new nuggets of information.
  • In terms of data so far this morning, UK labour market data was encouraging (but still showed we were a long way from pre-pandemic levels). Eurozone GDP was in line with expectations. Housing starts and building permits are the highlights of the US data calendar.
  • TY1 futures are down -0-2 today at 132-09 with 10y UST yields down -0.3bp at 1.648% and 2y yields down -0.1bp at 0.154%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.03 today at 168.89 with 10y Bund yields unch at -0.116% and Schatz yields up 0.1bp at -0.659%.
  • Gilt futures are down -0.10 today at 127.32 with 10y yields up 1.5bp at 0.879% and 2y yields up 0.8bp at 0.087%.

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