August 23, 2024 06:29 GMT
SWEDEN: Pace Of Labour Market Weakening Might Be Easing
SWEDEN
The Swedish July LFS unemployment rate was 8.6% after 8.2% in June. The Bloomberg consensus of 8.4% was formed of just four analysts. The 3mma of the unemployment rate, which smooths out some of the monthly volatility), remained at 8.3%, after reaching a cycle high of 8.4% in April/May.
- A Sahm rule calculation of the unemployment rate eased to 0.6 (vs 0.8 prior, and a cycle high of 1.2 in April), which suggests that the pace of labour market weakening appears to be easing somewhat. This shouldn't stand in the way of the Riksbank's planned easing cycle though, following the dovish tilt in guidance at Tuesday's meeting.
- The Riksbank’s June MPR sees the quarterly unemployment rate peaking in Q3 at 8.52%, before gradually falling towards 8.0% by late-2026.
- Employment growth was slightly negative on a 3m/3m basis in July, bringing the 3mma employment rate to 69.1% (vs 69.2% prior). This follows a 1-point fall in the Economic Tendency Indicator’s expected employment metric last month.
- Meanwhile, the 3mma inactivity rate rose a touch to 24.6% (vs 24.5% prior).
![](https://media.marketnews.com/sweden_unemp_july_21fc2c8dfc.png)
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