MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, Aug 23

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY241.5 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1358 Fri; +2.17% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY379.3 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS FRI

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1358 FRI VS 7.1228

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1228 Thurs; +2.24% Y/Y

MNI: CANADIAN JUN RETAIL SALES -0.3%; SALES EX-AUTOS/PARTS +0.3%

Firmer Than Expected Inflation Expectations And Softer Growth

MNI: ECB 1-YEAR CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS 2.8%

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

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SWEDEN: Pace Of Labour Market Weakening Might Be Easing

SWEDEN
CEEMEABulletSwedenGlobalFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets

The Swedish July LFS unemployment rate was 8.6% after 8.2% in June. The Bloomberg consensus of 8.4% was formed of just four analysts. The 3mma of the unemployment rate, which smooths out some of the monthly volatility), remained at 8.3%, after reaching a cycle high of 8.4% in April/May. 

  • A Sahm rule calculation of the unemployment rate eased to 0.6 (vs 0.8 prior, and a cycle high of 1.2 in April), which suggests that the pace of labour market weakening appears to be easing somewhat. This shouldn't stand in the way of the Riksbank's planned easing cycle though, following the dovish tilt in guidance at Tuesday's meeting.
  • The Riksbank’s June MPR sees the quarterly unemployment rate peaking in Q3 at 8.52%, before gradually falling towards 8.0% by late-2026.
  • Employment growth was slightly negative on a 3m/3m basis in July, bringing the 3mma employment rate to 69.1% (vs 69.2% prior). This follows a 1-point fall in the Economic Tendency Indicator’s expected employment metric last month.
  • Meanwhile, the 3mma inactivity rate rose a touch to 24.6% (vs 24.5% prior). 
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The Swedish July LFS unemployment rate was 8.6% after 8.2% in June. The Bloomberg consensus of 8.4% was formed of just four analysts. The 3mma of the unemployment rate, which smooths out some of the monthly volatility), remained at 8.3%, after reaching a cycle high of 8.4% in April/May. 

  • A Sahm rule calculation of the unemployment rate eased to 0.6 (vs 0.8 prior, and a cycle high of 1.2 in April), which suggests that the pace of labour market weakening appears to be easing somewhat. This shouldn't stand in the way of the Riksbank's planned easing cycle though, following the dovish tilt in guidance at Tuesday's meeting.
  • The Riksbank’s June MPR sees the quarterly unemployment rate peaking in Q3 at 8.52%, before gradually falling towards 8.0% by late-2026.
  • Employment growth was slightly negative on a 3m/3m basis in July, bringing the 3mma employment rate to 69.1% (vs 69.2% prior). This follows a 1-point fall in the Economic Tendency Indicator’s expected employment metric last month.
  • Meanwhile, the 3mma inactivity rate rose a touch to 24.6% (vs 24.5% prior).