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Switcher vs Stayer Wage Growth As Another Measure Of Churn

US
  • Today’s release of the January Atlanta Fed wage growth tracker showed a more notable narrowing in the gap between wage growth for those switching jobs (from 7.7 to 7.3% Y/Y 3mma) and those staying in their existing job (5.3 to 5.4% Y/Y 3mma).
  • This put the gap between the two to 1.9pps for the lowest since June, which anecdotally at least would indicate some of the labour market churn (or at least bargaining power for those in high-demand jobs) seen post-pandemic could be fading.
  • However, when compared to the JOLTS private sector quits rate, this drop off is only confirming a recent moderation to still historically elevated levels that remain consistent with strong aggregate wage growth.

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