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TD Initiate Short USDBRL Trade With a Target of 4.8500

BRAZIL
  • On Tuesday, TD said that they initiated a strategic short USDBRL trade at 5.3260, with a target 4.8500 and a stop loss 5.5650, for a risk reward of ~2:1.
  • TD are looking through current USDBRL volatility associated with high uncertainty and concerns regarding fiscal policy guidelines and key Cabinet appointees for the incoming new Government (starting January 2023).
  • They underline their scenario of a gradual configuration of a close-to-the-center Government with a conciliatory, inclusive and collaborative motto, congruent with a more responsible fiscal profile than markets are currently pricing.
  • “Indeed, stronger institutional and governmental counterbalances, in comparison with what Lula faced two decades ago, are central to our scenario.”
  • A highly competitive carry, expected to extend during most of 2023, is also key for their trade.
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