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TD Need To See More Definitive CPI Signal To Have June Cut Conviction

CANADA
  • TD look for headline CPI to ease 0.1pp to 2.8% Y/Y in April on a 0.6% M/M (NSA) increase.
  • “Energy prices will be the key driver for the latter, while the shelter and apparel components provide another source of strength.”
  • “Core inflation measures should offer some mixed signals in April with CPI-trim/median forecast to rise by 0.2% m/m, translating to a 0.2pp deceleration to 2.9% y/y for CPI-trim as CPI-median edges lower to 2.7% y/y.”
  • “However, 3m rates of core CPI should give a less dovish interpretation, firming by 0.6pp to 1.9%.”
  • “The April CPI report could be one of the most impactful in recent memory with the BoC’s forward guidance centered around its desire for "sustained progress".
  • “While the Bank could point to the continued deceleration across headline/core CPI as evidence this has materialized, we believe it would take a more definitive signal to give the Bank conviction to cut rates in June.”
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