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Technical Tide Turns, Key Risk Events Eyed

AUDNZD

AUD/NZD has fallen ~1.7% this week, breaking out of the recovery bull channel the cross had been in, see the chart below.

  • The pair is now dealing below its key EMA's as the technical picture begins to turn.
  • Bears now target $1.06, a break through here opens up 2022 lows from Dec at $1.0471.
  • Bulls look for a break back above $1.08, opening up the 100-day EMA at $1.0881.
  • The recent moves have come in spite of relative commodity outperformance for AUD, and may reflect profit taking ahead of key risk events today and next week after the ~4.5% rally from December lows.
  • Dec Labour report from Australia is out today, while next week Q4 CPI from Australia and New Zealand is on tap on Wednesday.

Fig 1: AUD/NZD Spot Below Key EMAs

Source: Market News International (MNI)/Bloomberg

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