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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
PLN
EUR/PLN charts another bullish candlestick on the heels of two days of gains in a row. Today's move has allowed the pair to convincingly breach the 50-EMA, which capped price action in the second half of March. Trading activity over these three days has been reminiscent of a "three white soldiers" candlestick pattern, albeit it remains to be seen if the pair manages to cling onto this morning's gains on a closing basis. If it does, bulls will seek a move towards Feb 7 high of 4.3564. When this is being typed, EUR/PLN trades +157 pips at 4.3200.
- Recent USD strength seems to bear at least part of the responsibility for weakness in the EM FX space, with the BBDXY Index gaining 1.9% since Apr 9. This coincided with a 3.7% rally in USD/PLN, with the pair pushing through the psychologically significant 4.0000 figure and Mar 28 high of 4.0089 in what appears to be a short-term double bottom pattern. This plays into a more complex bullish reversal structure, with USD/PLN testing the territory above Feb 14 high of 4.0671 and the 200-DMA at 4.0719. A sustained break above these levels is needed to confirm that bulls are indeed on the offensive.
- These developments have overshadowed the lack of major domestic catalysts. Today's release of core CPI data by the NBP is unlikely to move the needle, as most sell-side desks are able to predict the outcome based on final CPI data with considerable accuracy.
Fig. 1: USD/PLN
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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