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NBP Watch

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TECHS: Price Signal Summary - S&P E Minis Needle Still Points North

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-minis bulls are holding onto gains. The focus is 4160.13 next, 1.500 projection of the Feb 1 - Feb 16 - Mar 4 price swing.
  • In the FX world, EURUSD maintains a short-term bullish tone. The focus is on 1.1938, the 50-day EMA and a key resistance area where a break is required to suggest scope for an extension higher. The GBPUSD outlook remains bearish with a firm resistance at 1.3919, Apr 6 high. The key support and bear trigger to watch is 1.3670, Mar 25 low. A brief test of this support yesterday failed to result in a clear break. EURGBP key near term resistance is 0.8731, Feb 26 high. A break of this hurdle is required to suggest scope for an extension of recent gains. USDJPY remains vulnerable near-term. The 20-day EMA has been probed. A clear break would open 108.41, Mar 23 low.
  • On the commodity front:
    • Gold is pulling away from recent highs. Resistance has been defined at $1758.8, Apr 8 high. Watch support at $1721.4, Apr 5 low.
    • Brent (M1) key directional triggers are unchanged.
      • Resistance is at $65.39, Mar 29 high with key support at $60.33, Mar 23 low and the bear trigger.
    • WTI (K1) directional triggers are:
      • Resistance at $62.27, Mar 30 high and support at $57.25, Mar 23 low and the bear trigger
  • In the FI space, key support to watch in Bunds (M1) remains 170.52, Mar 18 low. The key resistance is at 172.66, Mar 25 high. The key support and bear trigger in Gilts (M1) is unchanged at 126.79, Mar 18 low. Initial firm resistance is at 128.93, Mar 25 high.
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