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Terminal ECB And BoE Rates Down 20+bp On US Bank Concerns

STIR
Implied ECB and BoE rate expectations have taken a hit alongside US banking sector concerns.
  • March meeting hike expectations remain largely intact: ECB has dipped a little to 46bp implied (down 3bp on the day, so the long-signalled 50bp is no longer a "done deal"); BoE March implied is off 5bp, with 21bp implied (70+% probability of a 25bp as opposed to a hold).
  • Terminal rate expectations have fallen by 21bp today in each case: the ECB is now seen hiking by a cumulative 138bp to a 3.88% depo rate by October); the BoE by 68bp to 4.68% Bank rate by September.
  • However unlike the sharp implied Fed cuts from peak to end-2023 (30bp), ECB and BoE implied cuts are more moderate (3bp and 6bp, respectively).
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