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Testing The Authorities Resolve

CNH

USD/CNH currently tracks just below 7.2200, little changed from closing levels last week. The pair continues to follow broader USD sentiment. In terms of upside levels, highs from Friday night came in just ahead of 7.2300, while on Thursday last week we got close to 7.2400. We wait to see if the authorities step up rhetoric from an FX standpoint, with the pair now comfortably above 7.2000.

  • Chinese President Xi’s weekend address in front of the Communist Party Congress provided no real shocks, with no movement in COVID policy, and views re: Taiwan & Hong Kong reaffirmed.
  • Note on Friday September trade figures weren't released. The Bloomberg calendar suggests the release can happen between now and Wednesday.
  • Today the 1 yr MLF decision is out. No change is expected from the previous outcome (2.75%), with only one economist surveyed by Bloomberg expecting a 10bps cut. 500bn yuan is expected in terms of MLF volumes (400bn prior).
  • Also note tomorrow delivers Q3 GDP and the September round of activity figures (IP, retail sales, fixed asset investment).

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