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Risk-On Ahead July Employment Report


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Bearish Focus

FOREX: The adoption of a bill aiming to support the Hong Kong protests by U.S.
Senate inspired a round of risk-off flows early doors, as participants weighed
potential implications for U.S.-China trade talks. Since the House of Reps
passed a similar bill last month, both chambers now need to work out a common
version of the document before it is sent to the White House. The initial
reaction in the FX space gradually dissipated, before condemnatory communique
from Chinese and HK authorities sparked another risk-off reaction. Within the
G10 basket, safe havens outperform their high-beta peers at typing.
- Supported by the HK developments, USD/CNH threatens to breach its 100-DMA.
- Other than that, major crosses have operated in a subdued manner. Japanese
trade surplus fell short of forecasts, while RBNZ Asst Gov Hawkesby insisted
that the RBNZ will take the planned bank capital transition slowly.
- The highlight of the session is the PBoC's LPR fixing, due at the bottom of
the hour. German PPI, Canadian CPI and the minutes from the most recent FOMC
MonPol meeting are also on today's docket. The ECB & Riksbank will publish their
Financial Stability Reports, while ECB's Lane, Rehn and Makhlouf will speak.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3806 |