Free Trial
US

Corporate Credit Update: Steady

GBPUSD TECHS

Corrective Cycle Still In Play

US TSY FUTURES

BLOCK, 2Y Sale

US

Biden Disapproval Reaches New High

US STOCKS

Equity Roundup: Resilient Despite Weak Data

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access

The Big 4 Look Ahead To Today’s Labour Market Print

AUSTRALIA

The big 4 domestic banks weigh in on the impending April labour market report, which will hit at 11:30 Sydney/02:30 London:

  • ANZ: We expect the unemployment rate to have fallen to 3.8% in April (from 3.95% in March) on an employment gain of 30K. Last April, due to Easter being early and during the survey period, there was an exaggerated seasonal effect which saw employment drop against expectations. But given Easter started at the end of the survey period this year, so it should have less of an effect.
  • CBA: We expect employment rose by 30K in the month, the unemployment rate declined from 4.0% to 3.9%, and the participation rate remained unchanged at its record high of 66.4%. Hours worked likely picked up in April too given the previous month saw hours worked affected by both COVID‑19 isolation requirements and the floods in NSW and Qld. On the other hand, more people than usual may have taken holidays over the Easter period which would weigh on hours worked.
  • NAB: Employment data for April is released on Thursday. The March numbers showed a slowing in employment growth to +18K, and the unemployment rate decreasing a tenth but remaining at 4.0% in rounded terms. For April data, we expect it to show a still-tightening labour market amid buoyant indicators of labour demand. We pencil in a decline in the unemployment rate to 3.8% on the back of employment growth of 40K, though the risk is skewed to a softer outcomes and smaller decline in the unemployment rate. We expect the participation rate to edge higher to 66.5%. Our forecasts are a little stronger than the consensus, which sees +30K for employment and unemployment at 3.9%.
  • Westpac: We have revised our employment forecast from +32K to +20K to acknowledge a softer momentum in employment while still allowing for a softer than expected recovery in hours worked. As noted by the ABS, 4.0% is the lowest the unemployment rate has been in the monthly survey. Lower rates were seen in the series before November 1974, when the survey was quarterly. With our forecast for +20K on employment holding the participation rate flat at 66.42% will see a 13K rise in employment with the unemployment rate rounding down to 3.9%
376 words

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to

MarketNews.com

MNI is the leading provider

of news and intelligence specifically for the Global Foreign Exchange and Fixed Income Markets, providing timely, relevant, and critical insight for market professionals and those who want to make informed investment decisions. We offer not simply news, but news analysis, linking breaking news to the effects on capital markets. Our exclusive information and intelligence moves markets.

Our credibility

for delivering mission-critical information has been built over three decades. The quality and experience of MNI's team of analysts and reporters across America, Asia and Europe truly sets us apart. Our Markets team includes former fixed-income specialists, currency traders, economists and strategists, who are able to combine expertise on macro economics, financial markets, and political risk to give a comprehensive and holistic insight on global markets.

The big 4 domestic banks weigh in on the impending April labour market report, which will hit at 11:30 Sydney/02:30 London:

  • ANZ: We expect the unemployment rate to have fallen to 3.8% in April (from 3.95% in March) on an employment gain of 30K. Last April, due to Easter being early and during the survey period, there was an exaggerated seasonal effect which saw employment drop against expectations. But given Easter started at the end of the survey period this year, so it should have less of an effect.
  • CBA: We expect employment rose by 30K in the month, the unemployment rate declined from 4.0% to 3.9%, and the participation rate remained unchanged at its record high of 66.4%. Hours worked likely picked up in April too given the previous month saw hours worked affected by both COVID‑19 isolation requirements and the floods in NSW and Qld. On the other hand, more people than usual may have taken holidays over the Easter period which would weigh on hours worked.
  • NAB: Employment data for April is released on Thursday. The March numbers showed a slowing in employment growth to +18K, and the unemployment rate decreasing a tenth but remaining at 4.0% in rounded terms. For April data, we expect it to show a still-tightening labour market amid buoyant indicators of labour demand. We pencil in a decline in the unemployment rate to 3.8% on the back of employment growth of 40K, though the risk is skewed to a softer outcomes and smaller decline in the unemployment rate. We expect the participation rate to edge higher to 66.5%. Our forecasts are a little stronger than the consensus, which sees +30K for employment and unemployment at 3.9%.
  • Westpac: We have revised our employment forecast from +32K to +20K to acknowledge a softer momentum in employment while still allowing for a softer than expected recovery in hours worked. As noted by the ABS, 4.0% is the lowest the unemployment rate has been in the monthly survey. Lower rates were seen in the series before November 1974, when the survey was quarterly. With our forecast for +20K on employment holding the participation rate flat at 66.42% will see a 13K rise in employment with the unemployment rate rounding down to 3.9%