The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts....>

NEW ZEALAND: The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts expects "a slight downward

revision to the growth outlook for the next two years. Expectations of weaker

household and Government spending over the next two years drive much of the

moderation. Household spending has been very strong in recent years, but there

are signs this is starting to slow as consumer confidence eases. Meanwhile, the

outlook for investment has been revised up for the coming year. This is largely

a timing issue - forecasters now expect a faster ramp up in residential

construction, but weaker activity in subsequent years. Capacity constraints in

the construction sector remain a key uncertainty weighing on the construction

outlook, which is reflected in the wide variation in these forecasts. The labour

market is expected to remain tight, with the unemployment rate forecast to head

gradually towards 4.1 percent by 2022. This is expected to flow through to

higher wage growth later in the projection. Inflation is expected to remain

contained, with annual CPI inflation expected to oscillate around 2 percent over

the next few years."