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Thinking About Thinking of Tapering

US TSYS SUMMARY
An active midweek session with a lot to unpack with several Fed speakers leading up to the April FOMC minutes release, a weak 20Y auction and a meltdown in crypto-fx that weighed heavily on tech stocks in the first half. Heavy overall volumes even without the pick-up in Jun/Sep quarterly rolling, TYM1 near 1.9M after the bell.
  • No data aside from the April minutes event risk, Tsys kicked off with a risk-off tone as sharp declines in crypto currencies (various reasons, but some pointed to early headlines China expressing negative opinion on digital tokens, Bitcoin ->20% last 24 hours, Ether -42% from highs), that spilled over to tech stocks and global equities in general.
  • Upbeat Fed speakers tempered the bid in rates (BULLARD: U.S. HAS `BIG ECONOMIC BOOM GOING ON', Bbg) while a weak $27B 20Y Bond auction (2.286% high yld vs. 2.275% WI) spurred additional selling. Tsys extended sell-off after April FOMC minutes as it became apparent Fed is thinking about thinking of tapering as economic recovery continues.
  • "Some participants mentioned upside risks around the inflation outlook that could arise if temporary factors influencing inflation turned out to be more persistent than expected."
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 1bps at 0.1592%, 5-Yr is up 5bps at 0.868%, 10-Yr is up 5bps at 1.6864%, and 30-Yr is up 3.1bps at 2.3911%.
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