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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
A Quinnipiac survey released today has found that former President Donald Trump’s slight lead in the 2024 presidential election is likely to be reinforced if third-party candidates are added to the ballot.
- Quinnipiac: “…Trump receives 48 percent support among registered voters and Biden receives 46 percent support, leaving the race too close to call.
- Quinnipiac: “In a five-person hypothetical 2024 general election matchup adding independent candidate Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Trump receives 38 percent support, Biden receives 35 percent support, Kennedy receives 17 percent support, and West and Stein each receive 3 percent support.”
- The poll comes after Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) told NBC News yesterday that he is "absolutely" considering a presidential campaign if he believes he can "reinvigorate" the "moderate, sensible, commonsense middle.”
- Axios reports: “Some Manchin confidants expect him to tour the country and flirt with a White House bid for a few months. For now, they aren't convinced he'll actually pull the trigger…”
- Betting and Prediction markets appear to have priced in the risk of third-party spoiler candidates, with Trump opening a nearly 9% lead over Biden in the past few weeks, according to Election Betting Odds' aggregator.
Figure 1: Biden vs Trump 2024 Hypothetical Voting Intentions
Source: Quinnipiac
Figure 2: 2024 Voting Intentions if Third Party Candidates on Ballot
Source: Quinnipiac
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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