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Tight Holiday Ranges Across Global FX Markets, NZD Underperforms

FOREX
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  • While most European markets are open, the observance of the Whit Monday holiday is tempering activity to start the week, with most G10 currencies exhibiting narrow ranges as we approach the NY crossover.
  • The USD index remains unchanged and hovers around 40 pips off the recent lows. Market participants will monitor the April lows just below the 104 handle as the next notable support as markets await further US data to assess short-term Fed pricing.
  • NZDUSD (-0.24%) is a relative underperformer following a Q2 RBNZ survey of inflation expectations showed households saw a slightly lower median expected inflation rate for the next two years at 3% from 3.2% in 1Q. This comes ahead of the RBNZ meeting on Wednesday, where markets expect an unchanged decision.
  • For USDJPY, the pullback from 156.74, the May 14 high, continues to signal the end of the corrective recovery between May 3 - 14, and a possible resumption of a short-term bearish cycle. Attention is on 153.45, the 50-day EMA, and 152.49, trendline support drawn from the Dec 28 low. Clearance of these two price points would strengthen a bearish threat. 156.74 is the resistance to watch.
  • No data is due for the rest of the session, however, there could be comments from multiple Fed speakers including Bostic, Barr, Waller, Jefferson and Mester speak. The RBA minutes and Canadian inflation highlight Tuesday’s calendar.
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  • While most European markets are open, the observance of the Whit Monday holiday is tempering activity to start the week, with most G10 currencies exhibiting narrow ranges as we approach the NY crossover.
  • The USD index remains unchanged and hovers around 40 pips off the recent lows. Market participants will monitor the April lows just below the 104 handle as the next notable support as markets await further US data to assess short-term Fed pricing.
  • NZDUSD (-0.24%) is a relative underperformer following a Q2 RBNZ survey of inflation expectations showed households saw a slightly lower median expected inflation rate for the next two years at 3% from 3.2% in 1Q. This comes ahead of the RBNZ meeting on Wednesday, where markets expect an unchanged decision.
  • For USDJPY, the pullback from 156.74, the May 14 high, continues to signal the end of the corrective recovery between May 3 - 14, and a possible resumption of a short-term bearish cycle. Attention is on 153.45, the 50-day EMA, and 152.49, trendline support drawn from the Dec 28 low. Clearance of these two price points would strengthen a bearish threat. 156.74 is the resistance to watch.
  • No data is due for the rest of the session, however, there could be comments from multiple Fed speakers including Bostic, Barr, Waller, Jefferson and Mester speak. The RBA minutes and Canadian inflation highlight Tuesday’s calendar.