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Time Spreads Fall Amid Near Term TTF Strength

NATURAL GAS

European TTF gas time spreads have pulled back with the surge in near term prices yesterday amid global LNG supply risks from potential strikes at Australia LNG facilities. TTF front month is trading back at flat on the day after an earlier pull back to around 36.6€/MWh.

  • The Q1 2024 – Sep 23 spread is back from just below 20€/MWh at the start of this week to 15€/MWh and after falling as low as 12.7€/MWh in within day trading yesterday.
  • The Win23 – Win24 spread has followed a similar move down from 6.8€/MWh on 7 Aug to around 4€/MWh today.
  • The risk of tightening near term supplies is reducing the incentive to carry floating LNG into the winter months or inject it into Ukrainian storage according to Timera Energy.
  • The rally underscores the lack of global flexibility, driving high volatility, (exacerbated by short covering) and the risk of asymmetric upside leading into the winter period, they added.
    • TTF SEP 23 down -0.5% at 39.61€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 23 up 1% at 51.35€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 1.2% at 52.28€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 0.3% at 55.1€/MWh

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