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Timings, Preview, Market Reaction

BOE

The full MNI BOE Preview is available here. The MNI Markets team expects a 6-3 vote for unchanged rates at 5.25% with largely unchanged guidance.

  • Timings: 12:00GMT / 8:00ET: BOE policy decision, Minutes, MPR
    Press conference: 12:30GMT / 8:30ET
    Decision Marker Panel: 14:00GMT / 10:00ET
  • In terms of market reaction, we think that the main driving factor is likely to be the vote breakdown. If there are less than three hawkish dissenters we could see a small dovish reaction in markets. If Dhingra votes for a cut, we could also see a small dovish reaction. Conversely if there is another 5-4 split this could see a hawkish market outcome (amplified even further if it was someone other than Breeden switching their voting intention).
  • The forecasts will also likely be watched for the market reaction, but there are less "clean" ways to trade these today, in our view. Any moves there may take a bit more time to filter through along with the Governor’s messaging in the press conference.
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