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OIL: Tracking Higher For The Third Straight Week

OIL
BulletEnergy BulletsCommodities

Brent crude has tracked sideways in the first part of Friday trade. The active contract was last just above $77/bbl. This follows Thursday's +1.00% gain. Trends have been mixed the past week, but we are up on last Friday levels by around 0.80% at this stage. WTI was just above $74/bbl in latest dealings, tracking up a more modest 0.20% for the week, (although WTI rose more last week). Both benchmarks are tracking up for the third straight week. 

  • For Brent, the technical set up looks bullish. We are very close to the 200-day EMA. A clean break highs may see $80/bbl round figure resistance targeted. Other key EMAs are lower, between $75.30 and $74.30/bbl, which could act as a support zone. We haven't tested sub the 100-day EMA so far this year.
  • There have been a number of support points this past week, with lower US crude inventories pointing to tight supply. Cold conditions in parts of the US have also supported heating fuel demand. Fears over fresh US sanctions on Iran/Russia has also supported risk premiums in terms of the outlook.
  • Concerns around a softer China growth backdrop have been offset by the above factors. Note we get China trade figures on Monday, with imports eyed in terms of the China demand pulse.
  • Before that the main cross asset focus will be tonight's US NFP print. 
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Brent crude has tracked sideways in the first part of Friday trade. The active contract was last just above $77/bbl. This follows Thursday's +1.00% gain. Trends have been mixed the past week, but we are up on last Friday levels by around 0.80% at this stage. WTI was just above $74/bbl in latest dealings, tracking up a more modest 0.20% for the week, (although WTI rose more last week). Both benchmarks are tracking up for the third straight week. 

  • For Brent, the technical set up looks bullish. We are very close to the 200-day EMA. A clean break highs may see $80/bbl round figure resistance targeted. Other key EMAs are lower, between $75.30 and $74.30/bbl, which could act as a support zone. We haven't tested sub the 100-day EMA so far this year.
  • There have been a number of support points this past week, with lower US crude inventories pointing to tight supply. Cold conditions in parts of the US have also supported heating fuel demand. Fears over fresh US sanctions on Iran/Russia has also supported risk premiums in terms of the outlook.
  • Concerns around a softer China growth backdrop have been offset by the above factors. Note we get China trade figures on Monday, with imports eyed in terms of the China demand pulse.
  • Before that the main cross asset focus will be tonight's US NFP print.