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Tracking U.S. Tsys But Outperforming

AUSSIE BONDS

In futures roll-impacted trading, futures move off cheaps to sit mid-range (YM +5.8 & XM +7.3) in line with some slight richening in U.S Tsys in Asia-Pac trade. With the RBA meeting in the rearview mirror and no local data of significance slated until Tuesday next week (NAB Business Confidence), the market appears destined to be guided by U.S Tsys through the release of February Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. On a relative basis, however, ACGBs continue to outperform. With data dependency flagged by both the RBA and the Fed this week, the AU/US 10-year yield differential is likely to exhibit increased volatility around upcoming data releases.

  • Cash ACGBs and swaps are holding morning gains, but slightly off the session’s best levels. A similar story for bills with the strip +1-3bp, led by the reds. RBA dated OIS is flat to -2bp softer across meetings. April meeting pricing remains around a 55% chance of 25bp hike.
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