Trade and Hospitality Industries Drive Moderate Q1 Growth

Swiss Q1 real GDP came in higher than expected on the sequential reading, at 0.5% Q/Q (vs 0.3% cons and prior) on a non sports event-adjusted basis, but lower than expected on a yearly comparison (+0.6% Y/Y vs +0.7% cons; 0.5% prior, revised from 0.6%). The Bloomberg median consensus was not consistent amid noticably more estimates being submitted for the Q/Q reading.

• When adjusting for sports events, growth was not as strong at +0.3% Q/Q vs 0.3% prior). The main takeaway here being that the report suggests that the moderate pace of growth in the Swiss economy continued in Q1.
• On a production split, "trade" and "hospitality" saw the most positive developments, both at +1.3% Q/Q (vs -0.5% and +2.2% prior, respectively).
• "Manufacturing" and "business services" meanwhile printed weaker than in Q4, at -0.2% Q/Q and -0.3%, respectively (+0.1% and +0.2% priors).
• On an expenditure basis, goods exports were lower on a sequential comparison (-3.3% Q/Q vs +3.8% prior). Elsewhere, developments were solid but not overly strong, with private consumption, government consumption, and equipment and software investment all contributing positively (+0.4% Q/Q, +0.2%, and +0.8%).
• Contrary to Switzerland's neighbor Germany, construction investment declined in Q1, however, at -0.2% Q/Q (vs -0.1% prior).
• Swiss real GDP growth is expected to pick up during remainder of 2024, with MNI's collation of sellside analysts standing at +1.1% Y/Y, +1.3%, and +1.4% for Q2-Q4. These estimates were not materially revised during the last three months. The SNB meanwhile expects around 1% growth for 2024 overall.

MNI, Seco