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Trade Data Due Over The Weekend


Offshore yuan finished the session broadly flat on Thursday; USD/CNH has stuck to a tight range since Friday last week, keeping a 200 pip range and coiling as the week goes on, the pair last down 1 pip at 6.4619. One-month CNH implied volatility slid for a sixth day on Thursday to intraday lows of 4.1125%, denoting the longest decline since June. Movements are likely to be muted today ahead of US NFP data.

  • Trade data is due to be released over the weekend. Bloomberg consensus looks for the trade surplus to be steady but the pace of exports to slow. Morgan Stanley expect a wider trade surplus: "We expect nominal export growth to soften 20% YoY in July (vs.32% in June) mainly from a very high base, while its 2Y CAGR could reach 13.2%, in line with the May-Jun average of 13.1% that iron out port disruptions. Evident of continued strength,2Y CAGR of container throughput of eight major ports picked up to 4.6% in July MTD (vs.3.4% in Jun), while Korea's exports in the first 20 days of July remained elevated. Meanwhile, import growth likely moderated to 30% YoY (vs.37% in June) and 13.6% 2Y CAGR (vs. 16.2% in May-Jun). Consequently, the trade surplus likely widened to US$55bn (vs. US$52bn in June)."
  • On the geopolitical front, US President Biden said Hong Kong residents in the US can remain in the country for up to as 18 months, citing China's human rights infringements as rationale. In response China said the US was interfering in its internal affairs.

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