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Trade Deficit Narrows, Exports Weak

NEW ZEALAND

The trade deficit narrowed in October to $17.1bn from $24.2bn bringing the deficit YTD down to $14.8bn from $15.4bn. Both export and import growth was weak with exports down 9.3% y/y and imports -14%.

NZ trade balance $mn 3-month ma

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

  • The weakness in exports was driven by sharp drops in dairy and fruit shipments but aluminium rose. Imports were weak due to falling shipments of machinery and equipment and vehicles, which implies a soft capex outlook.
  • Exports to China fell 19% y/y in October due to weaker dairy shipments. This is concerning for NZ as exports to China were worth over 5% of GDP last year. Exports to other key markets were also weak with Australia down 15% y/y and EU -24% but US +0.5% and Japan +9.3%.
NZ exports by country y/y% 3-month ma

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

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