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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CHINA DATA
While the focus remains on China's NPC, note that tomorrow Feb trade figures are due. This data will be in YTD Y/Y terms, as it covers the Jan-Feb period to account for the China LNY. The next read in y/y terms will not be out until April.
- For exports, the market forecast is -9.0% YTD Y/Y (range of estimates is -12% to +2%). For imports the same metric is expected to print at -5.5% (range of estimates -8.7% to +2%). The trade balance is forecast at $81.75bn YTD.
- The tone from China officials has been generally warning of external headwinds in terms of the growth backdrop. The Ministry of Commerce noted late last week that pressure on foreign trade has increased markedly. It is also willing to have candid talks with the US to reduce trade and investment restrictions (see this link for more details).
- Last week's PMI data hinted at an improved export outlook though, with a strong bounce in export orders. The chart below overlays the export orders from the manufacturing PMI (in y/y change terms) against y/y export growth.
Fig 1: China Export Growth & New Export Orders (Manufacturing PMI)
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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