Trade & FX Reserves Data Due, Export Growth Expected To Slow Further

China trade figures are out today for October, although the prints could be overshadowed by the weekend news around continued adherence to Covid-zero from the local health authorities. In any event, export growth is expected to slow further to 4.5% y/y, from 5.7% y/y previously. Import growth is expected to ease to flat from 0.3% y/y in September. The trade position is expected to remain very healthy, +$95.97bn forecast, against $84.74bn prior.

• Moderating export growth expectations for China is no surprise. South Korean export growth is already negative in y/y terms, likewise for Taiwan (although latest data is only available for September in Taiwan's case).
• Flat import growth is consistent with a softer domestic demand backdrop, hinted at from recent PMI prints for the month. This is helping keep the trade surplus very healthy though.
• Also out at some stage today is October FX reserves. The market expects a slight rise in the headline result to $3039bn, from 3028.9bn last month. Given reports around intervention in recent weeks, this print could draw extra focus, although it remains to be seen if this impacts official FX reserves.