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Trade Surplus Narrows, Exports To Major Partners Remain Strong

INDONESIA

The Indonesian trade surplus shrank for the second consecutive month in December to $3.89bn from $5.13bn the previous month. This was the lowest since May. Exports grew 6.6% y/y supported by oil and gas, whereas non-energy exports were only 5% y/y higher weighed down by a 2.7% drop in export prices. While the 3-month average remains elevated, a narrowing trade surplus would be a challenge for the IDR in 2023 and thus for Bank Indonesia.

  • Imports fell 6.6% y/y, which was less than expected, but were up on the month (nsa).
  • While export growth is off of its extremely high peaks to Indonesia’s major trading partners, it is still strong except to the US (2nd largest) which is down 22%y/y. Export growth to China moderated to 13.4% y/y but to Japan it rose to 22.5% y/y and to India +39.7% y/y.
Indonesia trade balance USDmn actual vs 3mma

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

Indonesia exports ex oil & gas y/y% 3mma

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

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