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Treasuries Cheapen With European Data; ECI & PCE Swing Into Focus

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have seen a sizeable belly-led retracement of yesterday’s post-ECB rally, starting slowly in Asia hours and then spurred on by a string of European data beats including German GDP and Italian CPI. Focus will shortly turn to a data-heavy docket with an eye on Wednesday’s FOMC decision.
  • 2YY +8.7bps at 4.361%, 5YY +9.9bps at 4.16%, 10YY +7.9bps at 3.998%, and 30YY +3.5bps at 4.118%.
  • TYZ2 trades 16 ticks lower at 111-06 towards the middle of yesterday’s range on above average volumes. The primary trend remains down, with resistance at yesterday’s high of 111-31 and support seen at 110-16 (Oct 26 low).
  • Data: Focus on ECI for Q3 (0830ET), PCE for Sep (0830ET) and final U.Mich for Oct (1000ET), even if yesterday’s Q3 data imply core PCE of 0.42% M/M barring revisions, whilst also see pending home sales for Sep (1000ET).

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