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Treasuries Extend Yesterday’s Bear Steepening

US TSYS
  • Treasuries have extended yesterday’s bear steepening, with cash Tsys running 1.5-5.5bp cheaper and with 2s10s now at -35bps. The latter is off the post payrolls high of -25bps but otherwise at levels last seen in the initial fallout to the regional banking woes of March and before that Oct’22.
  • It’s in moves that were again mainly instigated earlier overnight before steadying in European hours, although there has been some renewed cheapening impetus into the NY crossover. Earlier cross-market moves were derived from a soft round of demand at the latest 20-Year JGB auction and the latest long end ACGB syndication.
  • TYZ3 has moved through last week’s low, touching 106-28+ in recent trade to resume an earlier breach of 107-00, with decent cumulative volumes of 400k. There isn’t much in the way of meaningful technical support until the Oct 4 low (106-03+).
  • Ahead sees retail sales headline the docket with various second tier releases also slated (including IP, cap util, NAHB & business inventories). A range of Fedspeak including Williams and Bowman is potentially limited in its monetary policy scope until Barkin (’24 voter) at 1045ET.
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy sells $75B of 42-day CMB (1130ET)
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