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Treasuries Nudge Higher Ahead Of The FOMC

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have seen a slight bear flattening, with the short-end up less than 1bp ahead of the FOMC decision later today with no reaction in the long-end.
  • 2Y yields are +0.8bps at 0.665%, 5Y +0.3bps at 1.239%, 10Y +0.2bps at 1.443% and 30Y +0.0bps at 1.828%.
  • TYH2 futures are back close to where they started today at 130-20 in a tight range on low volumes. A clear break of 130-11 (20-day EMA) would open 129-24+, whilst clearing 131-16 would reinstate a bullish outlook.
  • Congress approved late yesterday to lift the debt ceiling by $2.5T to around $31.4T, as expected. This is estimated to extend borrowing capacity until early 2023.
  • The Fed decision at 1400ET/1900GMT and presser at 1430/1930 dominates today.
  • A solid day of data as well. Advanced retail sales for Nov and the Empire manufacturing survey for Dec are the pick at 0830ET along with a few other releases throughout the day.
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