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Treasuries Pare Gains But Softer Data Still Set The Tone

US TSYS
  • Front end Tsys have seen a sizeable paring of gains through the session, with the 2YY of 3.786% off a fleetingly touched low of 3.642% after the ISM Services miss. It has now even unwound some of the initial rally on weaker ADP employment but yields are still 4bps lower on the day.
  • 2s10s are back near the lower end of the day’s range at -49bp, with very brief post-ISM highs of -37bp and lows of -52bps prior to the US coming in.
  • TYM3 at 116-15+ remains off earlier highs of 116-30 having got close to the bull trigger at 117-01+ (Mar 24 high).
  • A similar story in near-term rates space, unwinding earlier declines but still down on the day: Fed Funds imply 10bp hike for May FOMC, before 39bp of cuts from current effective to 4.44% (-7bps) and 78bp of cuts to 4.05% year-end (-8bp).
  • Bullard (non-voter) set to discuss the economic outlook with text + Q&A tomorrow
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