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Treasuries Reverse Post-ISM Surge, Real Yields Still Dominate Moves

US TSYS
  • Treasuries have reversed the huge reaction following the ISM miss but still see yields down 15bps in the belly and with the 2Y having fully unwound the post US CPI moves from Jun 10.
  • New orders contracting for the first time since May’20 and the elevated risk of a technical recession are now seen to support earlier price moves rather than add to them, considering the 5Y is already down more than 40bps from Tuesday’s recent high.
  • The moves have been dominated by adjustments in real yields. Following the post-ISM round trip, the picture further along the curve is unchanged from what we wrote this morning: 10Y real yields have slipped 14bps on a day that inflation breakevens have stabilised after sliding to pre-taper levels of sub-2.40% in June.
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