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Free AccessTreasuries Revert Back To Post-CPI Levels As Volumes Fizzle Out
- Treasuries have recently touched new lows on the day for 2s and 5s, but it doesn't materially alter a large bear steepening on the day, between 4.5-11.5bp cheaper as the long end of the curve shifts back to post-US CPI levels. It’s attributed at least in part to little new news out of the Israel-Hamas conflict, which has helped see a notable pullback from Friday’s highs, although geopolitical tensions continue with Iran’s minister of foreign affairs warning the probability of the conflict spreading to other fronts is approaching the avoidable stage.
- Limited data has helped support some of this steepening, with a small beat for the Empire manufacturing survey for October and more notably another month with its six-month ahead metric at pre-pandemic level to support a softer landing thesis.
- TYZ3 has broadly traded sideways in recent hours, currently at 107-06 (-16+) off the low of 107-04 that stopped just short of support at 107-02+ (Oct 10 low) with firmer focus on 106-03+ (Oct 4 low). Having started off with decent relative volumes heading into the NY crossover, volumes have since been more lackluster, only just ticking over 1M for the day.
- Tomorrow sees a more notable docket, with retail sales for Sep, Fedspeak from Williams, Bowman, Barkin and Kashkari and a picking up of earnings releases including Johnson & Johnson, BofA and GS before the cash equity open.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.