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Treasuries See Modest Further Flattening With CPI Eyed

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys see a limited twist flattening, with the 2Y slightly cheaper but holding on for a mild rally beyond that having only partially retraced an overnight bid that some pointed to softer than expected China PPI data even if the nature of the move didn't back that idea up, in our view.
  • 2YY +0.6bp at 4.224%, 5YY -0.7bps at 3.651%, 10YY -1.5bps at 3.524% and 30YY -3.1bps at 3.641%. 2s10s of -70bps is down from most recent late Dec highs of almost -45bps but still off lows nearing -85bps.
  • TYH3 trades 4 ticks higher at 114-18 on modestly above average volumes for the day. It remains at the high end of the week’s range, off highs of 114-23+ that form initial resistance, with a downside surprise in CPI potentially seeing more attention on the bull trigger at 115-11+ (Dec 13 high).
  • Data: CPI at 0830ET dominates – preview here – plus also see weekly jobless claims plus monthly fiscal data for Dec (1400ET).
  • Fedspeak: Harker (’23 voter) 0845ET, Bullard (non-voter) at 1130ET and Barkin (’24) at 1240ET.
  • Bond issuance: US Tsy $18B 30Y Bond R/O (912810TL2) – 1300ET
  • Heavy bill issuance: US Tsy $60B 4W, $55B 8W bill auction at 1130ET, $60B 35D bill at 1300ET
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