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Treasuries Softer Pre-CPI, 2s10s At Pre March FOMC Levels

US TSYS
  • Cash Treasuries sit softer on the day despite a recent rally, largely consolidating yesterday’s bear steepening which drove 2s10s ~10bps higher, currently at 27bps having touched -10bps early last week. It is broadly back to where it was prior to the Mar 16 FOMC decision.
  • 2Y yields are 9bps off last week’s new high of 2.60% despite a continued ratcheting up in Fed hike expectations, whilst 10Y yields are only 4.5bps off highs touched overnight (highest since Dec-2018)
  • 2YY +1.5bps at 2.512%, 5YY +0.9bps at 2.797%, 10YY +1.0bps at 2.790%, 30YY +0.2bps at 2.810%.
  • TYM2 is down just 2 ticks at 119-22 having increased sharply in recent trade. The bear trend is seen extending, with support at the intraday low of 119-10+ after which it eyes at 119-04+ (low Dec 3 2018 cont).
  • Data: Dominated by CPI for March at 0830ET, with headline surging +1.2% M/M on energy whilst core is seen at +0.5% M/M after +0.51% M/M in Feb. Monthly Budget Statement at 1400ET.
  • Fedspeak: Brainard (voter, soon to be VC) at 1210ET before Barkin (2024 voter) late on at 1900ET.
  • Bond issuance: US Tsy $34B 10Y note auction re-open (91282CDY4) at 1300ET

Source: Bloomberg

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