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Treasury Futures Test Lows, Goldman See Only Four Rate Cuts

US TSYS

TYH4 is currently trading at 109-11, down - 05 from New York closing levels
Treasury futures opened slightly higher Friday morning, however pushed lower post Fed Gov Waller speech on the economy, where he reiterated what earlier speakers said around there being no rush to cut rates.

  • Mar'24 10Y futures are just off Thursday lows (109-10) trading at 109-11, futures have continued to edge lower Post Fed speeches, initial support holds at 109-10 (low Feb 22) a break here opens a move to 109-05+ (lows Nov 28). Mar'24 2Y futures broke the Thursday lows, and have continued to drift lower now at 101-25 ¼, initial support holds at 101-24+ lows from Nov 27.
  • Earlier there was a 4,690 Mar'24 5Y Block Sold at 106-08¼, DV01 $194k, which looked to aid the selling pressure, as it has now made fresh yearly lows and back to late November levels of 106-05+
  • Elsewhere Goldman Sachs had dropped their forecast for a US rate cut in May, now expects only 4 cuts down from 5 prior.
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