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Treasury Futures Unchanged Early, Fed's Kashari Sees 2 Rate Cuts

US TSYS
  • Jun'24 10Y futures have opened steady in the first hour of trading on Thursday, very little has trade and ranges have been tight hitting a low of 111-15 and a high of 111-17+, we trade largely unchanged at 111-16
  • Looking at technical levels, Initial technical resistance is 111-23 (High Mar 6), a break above would open 111-27 (50% retracement of the Feb 1 - 23 bear leg). To the downside, levels to watch include 110-05+/109-25+ (Low Mar 1 / Low Feb 23 and bear trigger), below there 109-14+ (Low Nov 28)
  • Treasury curves bull-flattened on Wednesday with yields 0-7bps lower, as cash trading gets underway yields are mostly unchanged, the 2Y yield unchanged 4.55%, 10Y yield up +0.2bp to 4.102%
  • Post US Close, Fed's Kashkari spoke at a WSJ Event, his statements suggest a cautious approach to monetary policy, with the base case indicating no further rate hikes, while keeping with his December projections case of 2 cuts. However, he acknowledges that if inflation becomes more entrenched, the Fed may prolong its current stance, and if inflation flares again, a rate hike could be justified. (Link)
  • Thursday's data calendar includes Weekly Claims, Unit Labor Cost, and day two of Chairman Powell's testimony.
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  • Jun'24 10Y futures have opened steady in the first hour of trading on Thursday, very little has trade and ranges have been tight hitting a low of 111-15 and a high of 111-17+, we trade largely unchanged at 111-16
  • Looking at technical levels, Initial technical resistance is 111-23 (High Mar 6), a break above would open 111-27 (50% retracement of the Feb 1 - 23 bear leg). To the downside, levels to watch include 110-05+/109-25+ (Low Mar 1 / Low Feb 23 and bear trigger), below there 109-14+ (Low Nov 28)
  • Treasury curves bull-flattened on Wednesday with yields 0-7bps lower, as cash trading gets underway yields are mostly unchanged, the 2Y yield unchanged 4.55%, 10Y yield up +0.2bp to 4.102%
  • Post US Close, Fed's Kashkari spoke at a WSJ Event, his statements suggest a cautious approach to monetary policy, with the base case indicating no further rate hikes, while keeping with his December projections case of 2 cuts. However, he acknowledges that if inflation becomes more entrenched, the Fed may prolong its current stance, and if inflation flares again, a rate hike could be justified. (Link)
  • Thursday's data calendar includes Weekly Claims, Unit Labor Cost, and day two of Chairman Powell's testimony.