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Trimming Gains Ahead ADP Private Jobs Data

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures look to finish higher Tuesday, off session highs amid late position squaring ahead Wednesday's ADP private employment data risk, a precursor to Friday's headline employment report.
  • Rates continued to extend week gains after this morning's lower than expected JOLTS Job Openings (8.059M vs. 8.350M est, 8.488M prior) -- lowest since Feb 2021. Meanwhile, Factory Orders little stronger (0.7% vs. 0.6% est, 0.8% prior rev), Ex Transportation (0.7% vs. 0.5% est, 0.4% prior rev); Durable Goods Orders in-line/firmer (0.6% vs. 0.7% est), Ex Transportation (0.4% vs. 0.4% est); Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air softer (0.2% vs. 0.3% est).
  • Rates had drifted higher after midday, through resistance at 110-04.5 (1.0% 10-dma envelope) to 110-05 high (+19). Sights now on 110-09, the May 16 high and bull trigger.
  • Middle East tensions potential driver for the ongoing bid - but support cooled slightly after President Biden executive action to curb migrant crossings at the southern border.
  • Cash yields are currently running mildly lower: 2s -.0377 at 4.7704%, 10s -.0547 at 4.3337%, 30s -.0557 at 4.4819%, while curves look mildly mixed: 2s10s -1.701 at -43.871, 5s30s +0. 058 at 12.985.
  • Late year rate cut projections continue to gain vs. late Monday levels (*): June 2024 at -1.3% w/ cumulative rate cut -.3bp at 5.328%, July'24 at -16% w/ cumulative at -4.3bp at 5.288%, Sep'24 cumulative -19.3bp (-17.2bp), Nov'24 cumulative -27.8bp (-25.3bp), Dec'24 -44.3bp (-40.6bp).
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