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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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A new survey from Politico Magazine/Ipsos has found that a conviction for former President Donald Trump in the New York hush money case could have a major impact in determining the 2024 presidential election result due to softer support for Trump amongst GOP-leaning independents.
- The Manhattan case is the most likely of the four Trump criminal trials to see a jury before the election but has often been dismissed as the least threatening to Trump's freedom and political ambitions.
- The trial was slated to get underway March 25 but that was delayed for at least three weeks to consider a new cache of evidence. Trump's legal team will seek to delay the trial further on March 25 when the presiding judge holds a hearing.
- Politico notes that the survey, "cuts against the conventional wisdom, as analysts have sometimes doubted the political impact of the prosecution in Manhattan... Notably, more than a third of independents said [a conviction] would reduce their likelihood to support Trump."
Figure 1: “If Donald Trump is tried and convicted in the Manhattan D.A.’s falsifying business records case, how would that impact your likelihood to support him for president?”
Source: Ipsos/Politico
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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