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Trump Opens Lead Over Biden Following Influential NYT Poll

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Former President Donald Trump finishes the week in his strongest position in the race from the White House since early March in the wake of a widely reported New York Times/Siena College survey which upended a polling trend suggesting Biden was in the ascendency.

  • While it is unusual for a single poll to materially impact perceptions of the presidential race six months out from election day, the survey drew an immediate confirmatory response from betting markets which have seen Trump cross the 50% threshold and breaking a months-long dead-heat with Biden.
  • Subsequent polls from Ipsos and YouGov showing a much closer race have failed to elicit a similar reaction reflecting that betting and prediction markets are receptive to Trump's favourite status.
  • Biden's approval finishes with week under the 40%, as it has been for much of 2024. The 538 approval tracker notes that Biden's approval touched 38% this week - close to the record low for his presidency.
  • ElectionBettingOdds, a site which aggregates data from betting and prediction markets, shows Trump with a 50.4% implied probability of winning.

Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Winner

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Former President Donald Trump finishes the week in his strongest position in the race from the White House since early March in the wake of a widely reported New York Times/Siena College survey which upended a polling trend suggesting Biden was in the ascendency.

  • While it is unusual for a single poll to materially impact perceptions of the presidential race six months out from election day, the survey drew an immediate confirmatory response from betting markets which have seen Trump cross the 50% threshold and breaking a months-long dead-heat with Biden.
  • Subsequent polls from Ipsos and YouGov showing a much closer race have failed to elicit a similar reaction reflecting that betting and prediction markets are receptive to Trump's favourite status.
  • Biden's approval finishes with week under the 40%, as it has been for much of 2024. The 538 approval tracker notes that Biden's approval touched 38% this week - close to the record low for his presidency.
  • ElectionBettingOdds, a site which aggregates data from betting and prediction markets, shows Trump with a 50.4% implied probability of winning.

Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Winner

Keep reading...Show less