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Trump Opens Lead Over Biden In National Polling Average

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Former President Donald Trump has opened a slight polling lead over President Biden, according to the New York Times national polling average.

  • The polling advantage is notable as it comes before polling reflects any material changes to public opinion following the first presidential debate last week.
  • The national polling average lead should be considered a strong advantage for Trump as it is widely believed that Trump can win the White House even if he loses the popular vote, as he did in 2016.
  • NYT notes: "It will take a few days to truly understand the impact on the polls from Thursday night’s debate. Some people watched the debate live, but other voters’ opinions will be shaped by clips and conversations in the coming days. Pollsters also need time to conduct robust and accurate surveys."

Figure 1: National Polling Average

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Former President Donald Trump has opened a slight polling lead over President Biden, according to the New York Times national polling average.

  • The polling advantage is notable as it comes before polling reflects any material changes to public opinion following the first presidential debate last week.
  • The national polling average lead should be considered a strong advantage for Trump as it is widely believed that Trump can win the White House even if he loses the popular vote, as he did in 2016.
  • NYT notes: "It will take a few days to truly understand the impact on the polls from Thursday night’s debate. Some people watched the debate live, but other voters’ opinions will be shaped by clips and conversations in the coming days. Pollsters also need time to conduct robust and accurate surveys."

Figure 1: National Polling Average

Keep reading...Show less